Una facció de la milícia talibana liderada pel comandant Qari Ziaur Rahman ha capturat la província fronterera de Nuristan, a l'est de l'Afganistan. L'operació s'ha produït arran que les tropes americanes presents a la regió es veiessin obligades a retirar-se, davant la impossibilitat de defensar les línies d'aprovisionament i la perspectiva de l'hivern que s'acosta, amb temperatures de fins a 20 graus sota zero. Els milicians marxen cap a Mohmand i Bajur, a l'altra banda de la frontera, on s'estan produint combats amb les tropes del Pakistan, segons ha dit un comandament talibà que cita l'Asia Times.Mentrestant, a la regió tribal de Waziristan sud, continua l'ofensiva de l'exèrcit pakistanès contra suposades posicions talibanes. Dues divisions pakistaneses, 28.000 homes en total, assistides per foc d'artilleria, carros de combat i suport aeri, han aconseguit arrasar totalment la localitat de Kotkai, d'uns 6.000 habitants, i parcialment Makeen. Des de començaments d'octubre el Pakistan assegura que ha anihilat 250 milicians i ha reconegut 31 baixes a les pròpies files. Segons la ONU, l'ofensiva ha provocat 125.000 desplaçats, que se sumen als 80.500 previs.
El World Socialist Web Site cita un analista del New America Foundation, segons el qual és del tot improbable que aquesta ofensiva mercenària del Pakistan patrocinada per Washington aconseguixi algun resultat durador:
In order to meet Washington’s demands, virtually the entire military resources of the Pakistani state would have to be dedicated to combating the militants at the expense of other goals, including curbing Indian influence in the region.
Sameer Lalwani, an analyst for the New America Foundation, wrote in September that Pakistan would need to deploy as many as 370,000 to 430,000 troops to permanently suppress Taliban activity in the tribal agencies and areas of North West Frontier Province (NWFP). He estimated it would take two to five years to assemble the necessary force and would require the redeployment of 150,000 combat troops currently stationed on the Indian border, as well as massive and ongoing US logistical and financial assistance.
Lalwani’s report noted that “as the US role expands and becomes more visible, Pakistan likely would face a stiff public backlash, a steep decline in the morale of its regular and irregular forces, and a more cohesive insurgency”. He also observed that any attempt to lessen the social inequality and oppression that help fuel the Islamist rebellion would require reforms that “undermine the power of the country’s existing elites and land-owning classes, which dominate the political scene”.
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